The Hidden Systems Issue Behind the Aged Care Workforce Shortage
Australia’s aged care workforce is under significant pressure because the system was not designed to manage demand at this scale. By March 2025, 88,000 Australians were waiting for their approved level of in-home care, with a median wait of nearly nine months. Providers across the country are struggling to fill roles, and the situation in regional areas is generally more challenging than in cities. For families relying on in-home care services in Wagga Wagga and the surrounding Riverina region, this is not an abstract policy matter. It affects actual wait times, the consistency of care, and decisions about who supports loved ones at home.
How Significant is the Workforce Shortage?
The figures indicate the scale:
The baby boomer demographic is driving much of this demand. The first baby boomers turned 80 in 2026. The number of Australians aged 80 and over is projected to increase by about 60% to more than two million by 2035. The system has been aware of this trend for many years, but preparation has not matched the scale now arriving.
The System Gaps Driving the Shortage
The workforce shortage reflects several interlinked issues:
1) Pay that does not reflect the work
Home and personal care roles are physically and emotionally demanding, yet pay often does not reflect that complexity:
Many roles are casual or part-time and comparatively low-paid.
Workers can earn similar or higher pay in retail or hospitality with less emotional load.
When better options exist, people may leave the sector.
2) Casual contracts with limited security or career pathways
A large proportion of the in-home aged care workforce has no guaranteed weekly income:
Few structured pathways to more senior roles.
Limited investment in professional development.
Workers seeking stability often look elsewhere.
3) Training pipelines too slow to meet demand
Certificate III and IV qualifications take months to complete, and enrolments are not keeping pace:
Around 17,000 new workers are needed each year for the next decade.
International recruitment fills only a small proportion of the shortfall (around 10% at best).
Domestic training capacity has not matched projected demand.
4) Administrative burden from funding reforms
The transition from Home Care Packages to the Support at Home program has added administrative pressure on providers:
Quarterly billing setup, updated care agreements, and new classification frameworks.
These activities take staff time away from direct care.
Smaller regional providers feel this most, as they may not have dedicated administration teams.
5) Funding that does not account for regional delivery costs
Regional providers typically travel further between clients than those in cities:
Travel time has a cost.
Fewer clients can be seen in a day.
Funding models have historically not accounted for this, placing pressure on margins.
6) No national workforce planning strategy
There is currently no unified national approach coordinating training supply, migration pathways, and regional workforce distribution. The success of the Aged Care Act 2024 will depend, in part, on the development of such a strategy.
Why Regional Areas like Wagga Wagga Feel This Loss
Each gap is amplified in regional settings:
Smaller initial applicant pools.
Longer travel distances between clients.
Limited access to nearby training facilities.
Housing costs that can price workers out of the local market.
In some high-demand regions, house prices are estimated to be 30 to 40 times the median annual income of a health care worker. For families considering In-Home Care Services in Wagga Wagga and the Riverina, this can mean longer waits, fewer available workers, and a greater reliance on providers with stable, long-standing local teams.
The Baby Boomer Demand is Arriving Faster Than Supply
There are approximately 5.5 million baby boomers in Australia. The oldest are now in their early 80s, when care needs often increase.
Demand for aged care beds is expected to rise by an average of 9,300 per year.
In FY25, the home care market recorded a 41% increase in people waiting for a package at their approved level.
This is occurring during a period of significant change as the system transitions away from Home Care Packages. Providers are adjusting while demand grows, and capacity is already tight before most boomers reach peak care ages.
What Needs to Change - and What Families Can Do Now
System-level areas for action:
Wages that reflect the complexity and responsibility of care work.
Flexible, shorter training pathways that do not require full-time study.
Funding models that recognise travel time and distance in regional delivery.
A dedicated national workforce strategy with regional planning built in.
Simplified visa pathways for qualified international aged care workers.
Practical steps for families:
Register with My Aged Care before a crisis point.
Understand your Support at Home entitlements early.
Ask providers about staff turnover and how long their home care workers have been with the organisation.
Choose a provider with a stable, consistent local team.
An experienced and consistent team is often one of the most important factors in care quality, regardless of funding settings.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why are aged care workers leaving the sector?
Low pay relative to workload, casual employment with limited job security, few clear career pathways, and high physical and emotional demands. Many move to roles that offer better conditions for similar or higher pay.
Q: How long will it take to train enough workers to meet demand?
The gap is unlikely to close quickly. Australia needs around 17,000 new direct care workers per year for the next decade. Current training pipelines and migration pathways are moving too slowly to meet this number in the near term.
Q: Does the workforce shortage affect the quality of care people receive?
Yes. When providers cannot fill roles, existing staff often support more clients. This can reduce time per person and increase the risk of missed or rushed care.
Q: Are regional areas harder to access care in than cities?
Generally, yes. Smaller applicant pools, longer travel between clients, and less access to training contribute to longer wait times and fewer available workers outside major cities.
Q: Will international workers fix the shortage?
Not on their own. Overseas workers may address only around 10% of the projected shortfall. Domestic training, retention, and pay reforms are essential alongside any migration strategy.
Q: What should families do if they are waiting a long time for care?
Contact My Aged Care to confirm your priority rating and ask whether interim funding is available. Speak with your provider about what services can commence within any interim allocation. It is helpful to begin these conversations before full funding approval.
For more information about how Home at Heart can support your in-home care needs in Wagga Wagga and the Riverina, please contact our team.